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|Integrating emerging technology identification into scenario-based technology roadmapping for technology foresight: a case example of Thailand's ambulance technologies
|Technology foresight allows an organization to systematically keep track of emerging technologies to be adopted in its technology development plan. In Thailand, the National Institute for Emergency Medicine (NIEM) develops the nation-wide emergency service system. While foresight methods such as scenario planning and technology roadmapping are already deployed at NIEM, the experts are unable to stay up to date on emerging technologies around the globe and face challenges to incorporate them into the emergency service in a timely fashion. This research tackles the issue by developing a framework that integrates Emerging Technology Identification (ETI) into Scenario-based Technology Roadmapping (SB-TRM) for Technology Foresight. To ensure its robustness, Action Research methodology together with methods of systematic literature review, workshop, and semi-structured interview to deploy the proposed framework at NIEM, evaluate outcome, and specify learning with degrees of validity and confidence that the novel framework would be applicable in similar settings. The integrated framework with the integration of ETI into SB-TRM was successfully implemented by using an accompanied manual prepared in accordance with the European Commission’s Good Foresight Standard and validated by Delphi panel experts prior to action taking. The practical findings from the four workshops indicated the transferability for NIEM to adopt the novel framework for future foresight activities. The research provided an evidence that the implementation of ETI improved the SB-TRM process by providing experts insights on emerging technologies and allowing them to anticipate future outcomes in forms of descripted scenarios and technology roadmap which reduced the complexity compared to technology roadmapping or scenario planning alone. The research had two practical implications: NIEM and other technology-based organizations can readily apply the validated manual and foresight-related collaboration among the public, private, and academic institutions was improved. The research also had major social implication as Thailand’s ambulance service and its development policy were effectively updated on the technology state-of-the-art. The action research elucidated the integrated framework and the guidelines as the new knowledge in the theory of foresight for practitioners to adopt for foresight practice in general. The research had a limitation due to a single case in the national level was studied. Future researches could benefit from exploring additional cases in the private sector.
|Thesis (Ph.D.)--Knowledge Management and Innovation Management, Graduate School, Bangkok University, 2020
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